Model line
Illinois −6.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 75%
Projected tempo
70.5
possessions
Site
Neutral
75%Win probability25%
The model makes Illinois a 6.3-point favorite, winning about 75 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs North Carolina defense
| Illinois O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs Illinois defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
