Model line
Kentucky −2.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Kentucky 60%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
Neutral
40%Win probability60%
The model makes Kentucky a 2.4-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
North Carolina offense vs Kentucky defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Kentucky offense vs North Carolina defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
