Model line
North Carolina −4.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 70%
Projected tempo
71.7
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
30%Win probability70%
The model makes North Carolina a 4.9-point favorite, winning about 70 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas offense vs North Carolina defense
| Arkansas O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.7#13 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 56.5#17 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 12.2#1 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 32.1#120 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 35.8#160 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 6.4#8 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 53.4#154 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 55.8#44 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 38.7#9 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 75.0#79 | FT% | — |
| 32.9#316 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs Arkansas defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Arkansas D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #1372.7 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #17751.4 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #24415.6 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #19831.0 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #6630.3 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #2313.1 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #10549.8 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #27654.0 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #4731.5 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #21038.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Arizona5 | L 88–109 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | High Point61 | W 94–88 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Hawaii132 | W 97–78 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Vanderbilt21 | W 86–75 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Ole Miss49 | W 93–90 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
