Model line
North Carolina −0.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 51%
Projected tempo
68.9
possessions
Site
Neutral
49%Win probability51%
The model makes North Carolina a 0.2-point favorite, winning about 51 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
West Virginia offense vs North Carolina defense
| West Virginia O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.0#356 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 51.1#192 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 17.5#239 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 31.0#168 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 35.5#167 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 11.2#319 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 53.2#162 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 52.5#149 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 32.8#242 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 67.7#331 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#117 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs West Virginia defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | West Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #35664.0 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #4648.3 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #9518.1 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #10529.0 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #4829.2 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #2218.6 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #25655.1 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #1145.7 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #24735.0 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #23138.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
West Virginia
| Sun, Apr 5 | N | Oklahoma22 | W 89–82 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Creighton36 | W 87–70 |
| Thu, Apr 2 | N | Stanford81 | W 82–77 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | BYU28 | L 48–68 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | UCF58 | W 77–62 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
