Model line
North Carolina −28.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina >99%
Projected tempo
71.3
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes North Carolina a 28.8-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Marshall offense vs North Carolina defense
| Marshall O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.7#65 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 54.8#48 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 16.6#170 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 31.9#128 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 29.2#329 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 8.1#65 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 56.5#79 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 54.6#69 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 36.8#33 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 73.0#168 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#84 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs Marshall defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Marshall D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #6570.7 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #11750.3 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #20116.3 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #31533.8 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #31341.1 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #2413.1 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #3146.0 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #11150.3 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #16133.6 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #17739.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Marshall
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Georgia Southern307 | L 78–82 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Georgia Southern307 | L 82–99 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Old Dominion218 | W 97–88 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Coastal Carolina240 | L 75–79 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | A | Appalachian St.234 | W 94–93 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
