Model line
UCF −22.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UCF 99%
Projected tempo
70.7
possessions
Site
UCF home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes UCF a 22.9-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
American offense vs UCF defense
| American O | Stat | UCF D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7#254 | Tempo | #7570.6 |
| 51.5#170 | eFG% | #22152.1 |
| 15.6#109 | TOV% | #24215.7 |
| 26.9#299 | ORB% | #9728.8 |
| 28.7#334 | FT rate | #17734.9 |
| 10.0#234 | Block% | #2578.1 |
| 49.5#254 | Assist% | #14651.0 |
| 53.3#113 | 2P% | #23752.9 |
| 33.0#226 | 3P% | #17933.9 |
| 75.8#54 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#37 | 3PA rate | #18839.4 |
UCF offense vs American defense
| UCF O | Stat | American D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#75 | Tempo | #25466.7 |
| 52.6#124 | eFG% | #31054.4 |
| 16.0#143 | TOV% | #4019.2 |
| 35.0#48 | ORB% | #12629.4 |
| 30.5#299 | FT rate | #32342.1 |
| 9.4#181 | Block% | #3624.4 |
| 53.7#144 | Assist% | #21653.7 |
| 51.7#185 | 2P% | #31155.1 |
| 36.2#50 | 3P% | #27735.5 |
| 72.9#173 | FT% | — |
| 34.8#280 | 3PA rate | #25837.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
American
| Thu, Mar 5 | A | Boston University309 | L 73–75 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Boston University309 | L 65–68 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Lehigh265 | L 73–78 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | A | Lafayette332 | W 75–61 |
| Wed, Feb 18 | A | Bucknell335 | W 75–57 |
UCF
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | UCLA18 | L 71–75 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Arizona5 | L 59–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Cincinnati30 | W 66–65 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | West Virginia51 | L 62–77 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Oklahoma St.52 | L 104–111 |
