Model line
Troy −9.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Troy 83%
Projected tempo
71.8
possessions
Site
Troy home
17%Win probability83%
The model makes Troy a 9.2-point favorite, winning about 83 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas St. offense vs Troy defense
| Arkansas St. O | Stat | Troy D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.5#15 | Tempo | #25366.8 |
| 51.7#161 | eFG% | #11350.2 |
| 19.8#343 | TOV% | #17516.7 |
| 38.2#7 | ORB% | #24331.7 |
| 39.1#79 | FT rate | #9531.4 |
| 10.2#251 | Block% | #2039.0 |
| 55.8#94 | Assist% | #11450.0 |
| 53.6#99 | 2P% | #19652.0 |
| 32.9#235 | 3P% | #5231.6 |
| 73.3#157 | FT% | — |
| 44.9#69 | 3PA rate | #19439.1 |
Troy offense vs Arkansas St. defense
| Troy O | Stat | Arkansas St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.8#253 | Tempo | #1572.5 |
| 51.5#173 | eFG% | #11550.3 |
| 17.3#224 | TOV% | #29214.9 |
| 34.6#58 | ORB% | #3727.0 |
| 36.2#145 | FT rate | #23537.0 |
| 10.9#296 | Block% | #2967.3 |
| 57.5#64 | Assist% | #15351.4 |
| 53.2#125 | 2P% | #12750.8 |
| 33.0#232 | 3P% | #10932.9 |
| 74.2#122 | FT% | — |
| 45.9#49 | 3PA rate | #20738.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas St.
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Georgia Southern307 | L 77–80 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Louisiana215 | W 81–58 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Southern Miss236 | W 89–84 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 102–94 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | A | Louisiana215 | W 79–62 |
Troy
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Nebraska19 | L 47–76 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Georgia Southern307 | W 77–61 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Southern Miss236 | W 78–70 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 80–65 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Louisiana215 | W 78–59 |
