Model line
Air Force −6.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Air Force 77%
Projected tempo
70.8
possessions
Site
Air Force home
23%Win probability77%
The model makes Air Force a 6.9-point favorite, winning about 77 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Alabama St. offense vs Air Force defense
| Alabama St. O | Stat | Air Force D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#38 | Tempo | #22667.4 |
| 47.1#333 | eFG% | #35056.4 |
| 18.3#286 | TOV% | #27315.1 |
| 31.9#126 | ORB% | #21331.3 |
| 34.9#183 | FT rate | #22736.6 |
| 11.0#299 | Block% | #3166.8 |
| 47.6#293 | Assist% | #23054.2 |
| 46.8#333 | 2P% | #33356.3 |
| 31.8#285 | 3P% | #35037.6 |
| 70.5#253 | FT% | — |
| 38.5#200 | 3PA rate | #20638.8 |
Air Force offense vs Alabama St. defense
| Air Force O | Stat | Alabama St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.4#226 | Tempo | #3871.3 |
| 48.9#290 | eFG% | #22252.2 |
| 21.9#361 | TOV% | #6018.7 |
| 21.4#360 | ORB% | #22631.5 |
| 35.1#173 | FT rate | #32742.3 |
| 11.9#336 | Block% | #8811.0 |
| 55.9#92 | Assist% | #25355.0 |
| 51.1#208 | 2P% | #22752.8 |
| 30.6#328 | 3P% | #19334.2 |
| 64.1#364 | FT% | — |
| 41.8#138 | 3PA rate | #14640.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Alabama St.
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Alcorn St.340 | L 65–77 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | H | Grambling St.326 | L 63–65 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Southern293 | L 64–71 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Alabama A&M313 | W 89–88 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Florida A&M317 | L 63–76 |
Air Force
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Nevada77 | L 45–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Nevada77 | L 59–74 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Grand Canyon42 | L 60–86 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Wyoming117 | L 62–66 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | San Jose St.161 | L 80–86 |
