Model line
Dayton −23.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Dayton 99%
Projected tempo
69.9
possessions
Site
Dayton home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes Dayton a 23.9-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs Dayton defense
| UT Rio Grande Valley O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#275 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 54.8#49 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 18.5#300 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 28.2#259 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 28.9#332 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 10.2#258 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 59.9#36 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 54.5#77 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 36.8#35 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 76.3#45 | FT% | — |
| 43.7#99 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Dayton offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense
| Dayton O | Stat | UT Rio Grande Valley D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #27566.5 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #3947.8 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #20416.3 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #26632.1 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #28338.9 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #2757.8 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #32158.1 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #6949.2 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #1930.4 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #22638.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
UT Rio Grande Valley
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | McNeese St.99 | L 80–84 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Nicholls St.287 | W 86–68 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Northwestern St.296 | W 74–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Texas A&M Commerce323 | W 63–55 |
| Mon, Feb 23 | A | McNeese St.99 | L 68–75 |
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
