Model line
Dayton −2.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Dayton 59%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
Neutral
41%Win probability59%
The model makes Dayton a 2.1-point favorite, winning about 59 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Memphis offense vs Dayton defense
| Memphis O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4#35 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 48.7#296 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 18.9#318 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 35.3#41 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 34.7#191 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 10.4#267 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 49.8#245 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 49.4#274 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 31.6#301 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 72.1#205 | FT% | — |
| 33.7#303 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Dayton offense vs Memphis defense
| Dayton O | Stat | Memphis D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #3571.4 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #5448.7 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #7318.5 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #35035.6 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #32942.4 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #3212.7 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #24454.7 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #13751.0 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #2330.5 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #6343.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Memphis
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Tulane153 | L 69–81 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Tulane153 | W 96–95 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | H | South Florida92 | L 89–96 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | East Carolina185 | L 68–84 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | Wichita St.80 | L 82–88 |
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
