Model line
Dayton −2.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Dayton 60%
Projected tempo
70.1
possessions
Site
Dayton home
40%Win probability60%
The model makes Dayton a 2.4-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Cincinnati offense vs Dayton defense
| Cincinnati O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.2#130 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 50.5#213 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 17.0#198 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 30.6#176 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 29.4#323 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 6.8#15 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 63.7#10 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 50.2#248 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 33.9#179 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 68.1#321 | FT% | — |
| 43.8#94 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Dayton offense vs Cincinnati defense
| Dayton O | Stat | Cincinnati D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #13069.2 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #2647.3 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #8818.2 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #4527.3 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #5830.0 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #4712.1 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #23954.5 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #4147.9 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #3531.0 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #16439.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Cincinnati
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | UCF58 | L 65–66 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Utah88 | W 73–66 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | TCU50 | L 63–73 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | BYU28 | W 90–68 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Oklahoma St.52 | W 91–68 |
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
