Model line
Dayton −22.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Dayton 99%
Projected tempo
69.7
possessions
Site
Dayton home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes Dayton a 22.8-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Northern Illinois offense vs Dayton defense
| Northern Illinois O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0#147 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 47.6#321 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 21.8#360 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 30.3#189 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 38.3#95 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 14.5#365 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 51.8#195 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 48.5#298 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 30.9#322 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 65.7#355 | FT% | — |
| 45.0#66 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Dayton offense vs Northern Illinois defense
| Dayton O | Stat | Northern Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #14769.0 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #34255.6 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #20216.3 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #15930.0 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #26838.3 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #3525.3 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #22153.9 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #33556.3 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #31936.3 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #24537.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Northern Illinois
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Grambling St.326 | L 87–89 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | Akron100 | L 55–94 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Kent St.126 | L 76–102 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Ball St.220 | L 43–79 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | Toledo144 | L 69–79 |
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
