Model line
Toledo −9.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Toledo 83%
Projected tempo
71.5
possessions
Site
Toledo home
17%Win probability83%
The model makes Toledo a 9.0-point favorite, winning about 83 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Ohio offense vs Toledo defense
| Ohio O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.4#77 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 50.9#199 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 15.5#106 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 28.4#249 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 36.9#133 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 7.5#32 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 46.6#309 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 54.5#75 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 30.1#341 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 71.0#237 | FT% | — |
| 38.1#213 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Toledo offense vs Ohio defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Ohio D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #7770.4 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #27053.0 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #22016.1 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #29132.8 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #26538.2 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #2188.6 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #6047.7 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #18851.9 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #34236.8 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #34033.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Ohio
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Kent St.126 | L 75–86 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Miami OH108 | L 108–110 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Massachusetts166 | L 82–94 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Toledo144 | L 67–79 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Northern Illinois278 | W 74–66 |
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
