Model line
Buffalo −9.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Buffalo 83%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
Buffalo home
17%Win probability83%
The model makes Buffalo a 9.2-point favorite, winning about 83 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Ball St. offense vs Buffalo defense
| Ball St. O | Stat | Buffalo D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.4#318 | Tempo | #21767.6 |
| 47.0#336 | eFG% | #33355.1 |
| 16.2#151 | TOV% | #10317.9 |
| 27.1#292 | ORB% | #20431.1 |
| 31.6#264 | FT rate | #8931.4 |
| 10.9#294 | Block% | #2358.4 |
| 53.6#145 | Assist% | #33058.8 |
| 47.0#331 | 2P% | #34156.9 |
| 31.4#308 | 3P% | #24935.1 |
| 71.0#235 | FT% | — |
| 39.4#183 | 3PA rate | #9642.0 |
Buffalo offense vs Ball St. defense
| Buffalo O | Stat | Ball St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.6#217 | Tempo | #31865.4 |
| 55.4#32 | eFG% | #24952.7 |
| 16.2#152 | TOV% | #6118.7 |
| 27.1#293 | ORB% | #19931.0 |
| 39.6#63 | FT rate | #10632.1 |
| 8.1#63 | Block% | #2468.2 |
| 54.4#128 | Assist% | #22654.1 |
| 54.1#82 | 2P% | #23953.0 |
| 37.9#19 | 3P% | #23434.8 |
| 73.6#145 | FT% | — |
| 45.5#57 | 3PA rate | #11741.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Ball St.
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Central Michigan272 | W 85–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Western Michigan173 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Northern Illinois278 | W 79–43 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Massachusetts166 | W 74–73 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | H | Akron100 | L 65–78 |
Buffalo
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Akron100 | L 70–73 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | Toledo144 | L 78–99 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Eastern Michigan176 | W 72–67 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Central Michigan272 | L 70–75 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | Akron100 | L 85–99 |
