Model line
Toledo −12.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Toledo 91%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
Toledo home
9%Win probability91%
The model makes Toledo a 12.4-point favorite, winning about 91 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Ball St. offense vs Toledo defense
| Ball St. O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.4#318 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 47.0#336 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 16.2#151 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 27.1#292 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 31.6#264 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 10.9#294 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 53.6#145 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 47.0#331 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 31.4#308 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 71.0#235 | FT% | — |
| 39.4#183 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Toledo offense vs Ball St. defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Ball St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #31865.4 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #24952.7 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #6118.7 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #19931.0 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #10632.1 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #2468.2 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #22654.1 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #23953.0 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #23434.8 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #11741.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Ball St.
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Central Michigan272 | W 85–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Western Michigan173 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Northern Illinois278 | W 79–43 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Massachusetts166 | W 74–73 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | H | Akron100 | L 65–78 |
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
