Model line
Toledo −14.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Toledo 93%
Projected tempo
70.8
possessions
Site
Toledo home
7%Win probability93%
The model makes Toledo a 14.1-point favorite, winning about 93 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Central Michigan offense vs Toledo defense
| Central Michigan O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.3#182 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 51.8#153 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 18.1#274 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 29.2#228 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 31.4#271 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 8.8#132 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 54.9#116 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 52.2#161 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 33.9#178 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 69.7#278 | FT% | — |
| 34.0#294 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Toledo offense vs Central Michigan defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Central Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #18268.3 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #30054.0 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #15217.0 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #32234.3 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #28439.0 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #6111.6 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #31357.9 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #28954.4 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #28035.5 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #21638.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Central Michigan
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | Ball St.220 | L 69–85 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Akron100 | L 64–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Buffalo191 | W 75–70 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | Kent St.126 | L 81–83 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Western Michigan173 | W 83–70 |
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
