Model line
Massachusetts −5.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Massachusetts 72%
Projected tempo
71.9
possessions
Site
Massachusetts home
28%Win probability72%
The model makes Massachusetts a 5.5-point favorite, winning about 72 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Toledo offense vs Massachusetts defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Massachusetts D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #4571.2 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #26452.9 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #16616.8 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #1926.1 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #34844.6 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #3216.7 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #32958.6 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #31655.4 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #12033.0 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #7842.7 |
Massachusetts offense vs Toledo defense
| Massachusetts O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.2#45 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 53.1#98 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 17.8#259 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 33.3#83 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 37.0#130 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 7.6#35 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 58.4#52 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 53.2#121 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 35.2#105 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 67.3#339 | FT% | — |
| 35.4#264 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
Massachusetts
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Toledo144 | L 67–77 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami OH108 | W 87–83 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Ohio167 | W 94–82 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Bowling Green192 | L 62–81 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | Ball St.220 | L 73–74 |
