Model line
Toledo −10.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Toledo 86%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
Toledo home
14%Win probability86%
The model makes Toledo a 10.4-point favorite, winning about 86 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Buffalo offense vs Toledo defense
| Buffalo O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.6#217 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 55.4#32 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 16.2#152 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 27.1#293 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 39.6#63 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 8.1#63 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 54.4#128 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 54.1#82 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 37.9#19 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 73.6#145 | FT% | — |
| 45.5#57 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Toledo offense vs Buffalo defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Buffalo D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #21767.6 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #33355.1 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #10317.9 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #20431.1 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #8931.4 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #2358.4 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #33058.8 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #34156.9 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #24935.1 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #9642.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Buffalo
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Akron100 | L 70–73 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | Toledo144 | L 78–99 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Eastern Michigan176 | W 72–67 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Central Michigan272 | L 70–75 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | Akron100 | L 85–99 |
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
