Model line
SMU −22.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
SMU 99%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
SMU home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes SMU a 22.7-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Ball St. offense vs SMU defense
| Ball St. O | Stat | SMU D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.4#318 | Tempo | #7270.6 |
| 47.0#336 | eFG% | #19151.6 |
| 16.2#151 | TOV% | #16816.8 |
| 27.1#292 | ORB% | #23531.6 |
| 31.6#264 | FT rate | #10832.1 |
| 10.9#294 | Block% | #9111.0 |
| 53.6#145 | Assist% | #34660.9 |
| 47.0#331 | 2P% | #19452.0 |
| 31.4#308 | 3P% | #18734.1 |
| 71.0#235 | FT% | — |
| 39.4#183 | 3PA rate | #947.7 |
SMU offense vs Ball St. defense
| SMU O | Stat | Ball St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#72 | Tempo | #31865.4 |
| 55.6#28 | eFG% | #24952.7 |
| 15.7#116 | TOV% | #6118.7 |
| 35.4#37 | ORB% | #19931.0 |
| 30.4#301 | FT rate | #10632.1 |
| 7.5#33 | Block% | #2468.2 |
| 54.9#120 | Assist% | #22654.1 |
| 55.6#48 | 2P% | #23953.0 |
| 37.1#28 | 3P% | #23434.8 |
| 74.3#115 | FT% | — |
| 35.9#251 | 3PA rate | #11741.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Ball St.
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Central Michigan272 | W 85–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Western Michigan173 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Northern Illinois278 | W 79–43 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Massachusetts166 | W 74–73 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | H | Akron100 | L 65–78 |
SMU
| Wed, Mar 18 | N | Miami OH108 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Louisville15 | L 58–62 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Syracuse76 | W 86–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Florida St.64 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Miami FL13 | L 69–77 |
