Model line
Arkansas St. −5.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Arkansas St. 73%
Projected tempo
72.5
possessions
Site
Arkansas St. home
27%Win probability73%
The model makes Arkansas St. a 5.7-point favorite, winning about 73 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Toledo offense vs Arkansas St. defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Arkansas St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #1572.5 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #11550.3 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #29214.9 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #3727.0 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #23537.0 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #2967.3 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #15351.4 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #12750.8 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #10932.9 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #20738.8 |
Arkansas St. offense vs Toledo defense
| Arkansas St. O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.5#15 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 51.7#161 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 19.8#343 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 38.2#7 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 39.1#79 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 10.2#251 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 55.8#94 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 53.6#99 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 32.9#235 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 73.3#157 | FT% | — |
| 44.9#69 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
Arkansas St.
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Georgia Southern307 | L 77–80 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Louisiana215 | W 81–58 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Southern Miss236 | W 89–84 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 102–94 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | A | Louisiana215 | W 79–62 |
