Model line
Arizona −7.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Arizona 79%
Projected tempo
70.5
possessions
Site
Arizona home
21%Win probability79%
The model makes Arizona a 7.6-point favorite, winning about 79 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Connecticut offense vs Arizona defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Arizona D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #3971.3 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #144.8 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #17216.7 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #3126.8 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #2427.3 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #7611.2 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #9949.4 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #243.5 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #4431.4 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #25637.3 |
Arizona offense vs Connecticut defense
| Arizona O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#39 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 55.1#37 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 15.1#68 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 38.3#4 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 43.2#18 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 8.4#89 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 55.3#106 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 55.4#51 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 36.3#46 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 73.2#161 | FT% | — |
| 26.7#363 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
Arizona
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Michigan24 | L 73–91 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Purdue29 | W 79–64 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Arkansas23 | W 109–88 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Utah St.56 | W 78–66 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | LIU262 | W 92–58 |
