Model line
Pittsburgh −3.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Pittsburgh 64%
Projected tempo
69.1
possessions
Site
Pittsburgh home
36%Win probability64%
The model makes Pittsburgh a 3.5-point favorite, winning about 64 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Villanova offense vs Pittsburgh defense
| Villanova O | Stat | Pittsburgh D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#276 | Tempo | #33864.6 |
| 53.8#76 | eFG% | #28153.4 |
| 15.0#67 | TOV% | #21516.2 |
| 32.2#119 | ORB% | #7028.1 |
| 30.9#284 | FT rate | #8330.9 |
| 7.3#23 | Block% | #1689.5 |
| 56.8#73 | Assist% | #16751.8 |
| 54.0#87 | 2P% | #26453.7 |
| 35.7#78 | 3P% | #25935.2 |
| 68.9#303 | FT% | — |
| 45.7#54 | 3PA rate | #12841.0 |
Pittsburgh offense vs Villanova defense
| Pittsburgh O | Stat | Villanova D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.6#338 | Tempo | #27666.5 |
| 51.0#194 | eFG% | #18151.4 |
| 17.3#223 | TOV% | #6918.6 |
| 33.9#71 | ORB% | #25031.8 |
| 30.4#300 | FT rate | #5930.0 |
| 9.2#159 | Block% | #3475.9 |
| 52.3#187 | Assist% | #23354.2 |
| 51.7#183 | 2P% | #21152.2 |
| 33.4#203 | 3P% | #14933.4 |
| 67.4#336 | FT% | — |
| 42.6#124 | 3PA rate | #27036.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Villanova
| Sun, Nov 1 | N | Notre Dame72 | L 72–74 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Utah St.56 | L 76–86 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Georgetown65 | L 64–78 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Xavier45 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | DePaul62 | W 76–57 |
Pittsburgh
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | NC State54 | L 88–98 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Stanford81 | W 64–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Syracuse76 | W 71–69 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Florida St.64 | L 74–75 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | California94 | W 72–56 |
