Model line
Pittsburgh −16.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Pittsburgh 96%
Projected tempo
69.5
possessions
Site
Pittsburgh home
4%Win probability96%
The model makes Pittsburgh a 16.3-point favorite, winning about 96 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Buffalo offense vs Pittsburgh defense
| Buffalo O | Stat | Pittsburgh D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.6#217 | Tempo | #33864.6 |
| 55.4#32 | eFG% | #28153.4 |
| 16.2#152 | TOV% | #21516.2 |
| 27.1#293 | ORB% | #7028.1 |
| 39.6#63 | FT rate | #8330.9 |
| 8.1#63 | Block% | #1689.5 |
| 54.4#128 | Assist% | #16751.8 |
| 54.1#82 | 2P% | #26453.7 |
| 37.9#19 | 3P% | #25935.2 |
| 73.6#145 | FT% | — |
| 45.5#57 | 3PA rate | #12841.0 |
Pittsburgh offense vs Buffalo defense
| Pittsburgh O | Stat | Buffalo D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.6#338 | Tempo | #21767.6 |
| 51.0#194 | eFG% | #33355.1 |
| 17.3#223 | TOV% | #10317.9 |
| 33.9#71 | ORB% | #20431.1 |
| 30.4#300 | FT rate | #8931.4 |
| 9.2#159 | Block% | #2358.4 |
| 52.3#187 | Assist% | #33058.8 |
| 51.7#183 | 2P% | #34156.9 |
| 33.4#203 | 3P% | #24935.1 |
| 67.4#336 | FT% | — |
| 42.6#124 | 3PA rate | #9642.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Buffalo
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Akron100 | L 70–73 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | Toledo144 | L 78–99 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Eastern Michigan176 | W 72–67 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Central Michigan272 | L 70–75 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | Akron100 | L 85–99 |
Pittsburgh
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | NC State54 | L 88–98 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Stanford81 | W 64–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Syracuse76 | W 71–69 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Florida St.64 | L 74–75 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | California94 | W 72–56 |
