Model line
Florida St. −7.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida St. 79%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
Florida St. home
21%Win probability79%
The model makes Florida St. a 7.7-point favorite, winning about 79 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Dayton offense vs Florida St. defense
| Dayton O | Stat | Florida St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #2771.8 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #22752.2 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #5119.0 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #31934.1 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #12332.7 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #6211.6 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #27155.7 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #22052.5 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #22334.6 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #3244.9 |
Florida St. offense vs Dayton defense
| Florida St. O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.8#27 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 52.3#132 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 15.2#80 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 30.8#171 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 34.7#190 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 12.8#353 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 52.5#179 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 55.1#55 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 33.1#222 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 71.3#230 | FT% | — |
| 50.6#13 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
Florida St.
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Duke1 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | California94 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | SMU59 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Pittsburgh79 | W 75–74 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 80–71 |
