Model line
Duke −5.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 70%
Projected tempo
70.6
possessions
Site
Neutral
30%Win probability70%
The model makes Duke a 5.0-point favorite, winning about 70 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Gonzaga offense vs Duke defense
| Gonzaga O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.2#86 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 55.6#26 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 13.6#16 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 34.8#52 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 31.0#282 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 6.0#3 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 57.5#62 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 58.2#19 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 33.3#210 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 70.7#247 | FT% | — |
| 30.8#342 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Gonzaga defense
| Duke O | Stat | Gonzaga D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #8670.2 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #1546.3 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #2220.0 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #1625.7 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #8230.9 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #8411.1 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #19452.8 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #2146.6 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #2430.6 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #7542.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Gonzaga
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Texas10 | L 68–74 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Kennesaw St.146 | W 73–64 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 79–68 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Oregon St.93 | W 65–56 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Saint Mary's74 | L 59–70 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
