Model line
Duke −5.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 70%
Projected tempo
69.3
possessions
Site
Neutral
30%Win probability70%
The model makes Duke a 5.0-point favorite, winning about 70 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Texas Tech offense vs Duke defense
| Texas Tech O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.9#206 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 56.7#13 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 15.8#126 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 33.3#84 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 27.3#350 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 7.4#26 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 55.3#107 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 54.1#83 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 39.7#3 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 71.2#232 | FT% | — |
| 47.8#26 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Texas Tech defense
| Duke O | Stat | Texas Tech D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #20667.9 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #8049.4 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #31014.7 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #16730.1 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #9931.7 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #1639.6 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #641.7 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #12550.7 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #4231.3 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #31935.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Texas Tech
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
