Model line
Duke −35.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke >99%
Projected tempo
68.6
possessions
Site
Duke home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Duke a 35.4-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Harvard offense vs Duke defense
| Harvard O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.9#357 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 53.2#93 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 17.4#227 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 26.8#303 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 25.7#359 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 7.4#24 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 56.1#87 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 54.0#85 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 34.7#137 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 80.8#1 | FT% | — |
| 40.2#166 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Harvard defense
| Duke O | Stat | Harvard D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #35763.9 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #12150.4 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #13817.1 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #7328.2 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #1726.6 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #9610.8 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #16351.7 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #15951.4 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #9232.6 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #21138.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Harvard
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Penn123 | L 60–62 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Columbia202 | W 81–71 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Penn123 | L 61–64 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | A | Princeton155 | W 58–56 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Cornell196 | W 73–54 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
