Model line
Duke −3.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 65%
Projected tempo
68.7
possessions
Site
Neutral
35%Win probability65%
The model makes Duke a 3.6-point favorite, winning about 65 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Connecticut offense vs Duke defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Connecticut defense
| Duke O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
