Model line
Duke −8.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 82%
Projected tempo
69.7
possessions
Site
Duke home
18%Win probability82%
The model makes Duke a 8.7-point favorite, winning about 82 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs Duke defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Illinois defense
| Duke O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
