Model line
Duke −3.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 66%
Projected tempo
69.5
possessions
Site
Neutral
34%Win probability66%
The model makes Duke a 3.9-point favorite, winning about 66 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan St. offense vs Duke defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Duke O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
