Model line
Louisville −6.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 75%
Projected tempo
71.3
possessions
Site
Louisville home
25%Win probability75%
The model makes Louisville a 6.3-point favorite, winning about 75 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Texas offense vs Louisville defense
| Texas O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.4#180 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 53.9#71 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 15.1#73 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 35.4#38 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 44.7#7 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 10.2#256 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 43.9#346 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 54.8#63 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 34.8#133 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 74.7#98 | FT% | — |
| 35.5#262 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs Texas defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Texas D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #18068.4 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #14150.7 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #35213.2 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #2826.6 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #29939.8 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #2787.7 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #3646.2 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #9449.8 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #25235.1 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #34633.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Texas
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Purdue29 | L 77–79 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Gonzaga17 | W 74–68 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | BYU28 | W 79–71 |
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | NC State54 | W 68–66 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Ole Miss49 | L 66–76 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
