Model line
Florida −6.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida 74%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
Florida home
26%Win probability74%
The model makes Florida a 6.2-point favorite, winning about 74 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Duke offense vs Florida defense
| Duke O | Stat | Florida D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #1672.4 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #1045.9 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #27015.2 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #724.6 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #14433.8 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #3412.6 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #1844.3 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #544.6 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #7132.2 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #33633.8 |
Florida offense vs Duke defense
| Florida O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.4#16 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 54.1#65 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 16.3#154 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 43.5#2 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 38.6#86 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 7.2#18 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 54.5#125 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 58.4#17 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 31.2#314 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 71.1#233 | FT% | — |
| 36.9#232 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
Florida
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa41 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | W 114–55 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Vanderbilt21 | L 74–91 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Kentucky20 | W 71–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Kentucky20 | W 84–77 |
