Model line
Florida −12.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida 91%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
Neutral
91%Win probability9%
The model makes Florida a 12.6-point favorite, winning about 91 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Florida offense vs Notre Dame defense
| Florida O | Stat | Notre Dame D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.4#16 | Tempo | #25866.7 |
| 54.1#65 | eFG% | #20251.8 |
| 16.3#154 | TOV% | #33814.0 |
| 43.5#2 | ORB% | #3026.7 |
| 38.6#86 | FT rate | #21536.2 |
| 7.2#18 | Block% | #3017.3 |
| 54.5#125 | Assist% | #26655.4 |
| 58.4#17 | 2P% | #26053.6 |
| 31.2#314 | 3P% | #13533.2 |
| 71.1#233 | FT% | — |
| 36.9#232 | 3PA rate | #1147.4 |
Notre Dame offense vs Florida defense
| Notre Dame O | Stat | Florida D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7#258 | Tempo | #1672.4 |
| 52.3#133 | eFG% | #1045.9 |
| 17.0#202 | TOV% | #27015.2 |
| 31.2#159 | ORB% | #724.6 |
| 34.1#205 | FT rate | #14433.8 |
| 8.8#135 | Block% | #3412.6 |
| 47.4#297 | Assist% | #1844.3 |
| 51.4#198 | 2P% | #544.6 |
| 35.6#83 | 3P% | #7132.2 |
| 69.7#279 | FT% | — |
| 43.5#101 | 3PA rate | #33633.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Florida
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa41 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | W 114–55 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Vanderbilt21 | L 74–91 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Kentucky20 | W 71–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Kentucky20 | W 84–77 |
Notre Dame
| Sun, Nov 1 | N | Villanova47 | W 74–72 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Boston College106 | L 69–77 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Stanford81 | L 78–86 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | NC State54 | W 96–90 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Duke1 | L 56–100 |
