Model line
Florida −37.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida >99%
Projected tempo
70.0
possessions
Site
Florida home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Florida a 37.5-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Merrimack offense vs Florida defense
| Merrimack O | Stat | Florida D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8#358 | Tempo | #1672.4 |
| 49.1#287 | eFG% | #1045.9 |
| 14.8#55 | TOV% | #27015.2 |
| 24.8#343 | ORB% | #724.6 |
| 38.2#96 | FT rate | #14433.8 |
| 13.0#355 | Block% | #3412.6 |
| 56.0#90 | Assist% | #1844.3 |
| 49.1#279 | 2P% | #544.6 |
| 32.7#245 | 3P% | #7132.2 |
| 78.8#7 | FT% | — |
| 46.1#45 | 3PA rate | #33633.8 |
Florida offense vs Merrimack defense
| Florida O | Stat | Merrimack D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.4#16 | Tempo | #35863.8 |
| 54.1#65 | eFG% | #1746.7 |
| 16.3#154 | TOV% | #1720.4 |
| 43.5#2 | ORB% | #36539.9 |
| 38.6#86 | FT rate | #24037.1 |
| 7.2#18 | Block% | #1513.9 |
| 54.5#125 | Assist% | #29856.9 |
| 58.4#17 | 2P% | #3547.3 |
| 31.2#314 | 3P% | #1330.3 |
| 71.1#233 | FT% | — |
| 36.9#232 | 3PA rate | #35032.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Merrimack
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Appalachian St.234 | L 49–63 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Siena271 | L 54–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Marist257 | W 58–57 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Sacred Heart310 | W 70–48 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Niagara318 | W 73–66 |
Florida
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa41 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | W 114–55 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Vanderbilt21 | L 74–91 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Kentucky20 | W 71–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Kentucky20 | W 84–77 |
