Model line
Florida −3.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida 65%
Projected tempo
72.8
possessions
Site
Florida St. home
65%Win probability36%
The model makes Florida a 3.5-point favorite, winning about 65 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Florida offense vs Florida St. defense
| Florida O | Stat | Florida St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.4#16 | Tempo | #2771.8 |
| 54.1#65 | eFG% | #22752.2 |
| 16.3#154 | TOV% | #5119.0 |
| 43.5#2 | ORB% | #31934.1 |
| 38.6#86 | FT rate | #12332.7 |
| 7.2#18 | Block% | #6211.6 |
| 54.5#125 | Assist% | #27155.7 |
| 58.4#17 | 2P% | #22052.5 |
| 31.2#314 | 3P% | #22334.6 |
| 71.1#233 | FT% | — |
| 36.9#232 | 3PA rate | #3244.9 |
Florida St. offense vs Florida defense
| Florida St. O | Stat | Florida D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.8#27 | Tempo | #1672.4 |
| 52.3#132 | eFG% | #1045.9 |
| 15.2#80 | TOV% | #27015.2 |
| 30.8#171 | ORB% | #724.6 |
| 34.7#190 | FT rate | #14433.8 |
| 12.8#353 | Block% | #3412.6 |
| 52.5#179 | Assist% | #1844.3 |
| 55.1#55 | 2P% | #544.6 |
| 33.1#222 | 3P% | #7132.2 |
| 71.3#230 | FT% | — |
| 50.6#13 | 3PA rate | #33633.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Florida
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa41 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | W 114–55 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Vanderbilt21 | L 74–91 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Kentucky20 | W 71–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Kentucky20 | W 84–77 |
Florida St.
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Duke1 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | California94 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | SMU59 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Pittsburgh79 | W 75–74 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 80–71 |
