Model line
Alabama −5.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Alabama 70%
Projected tempo
73.4
possessions
Site
South Florida home
70%Win probability30%
The model makes Alabama a 5.0-point favorite, winning about 70 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Alabama offense vs South Florida defense
| Alabama O | Stat | South Florida D |
|---|---|---|
| 74.5#5 | Tempo | #1273.0 |
| 55.4#31 | eFG% | #6048.8 |
| 13.1#9 | TOV% | #4619.1 |
| 32.2#115 | ORB% | #25231.9 |
| 36.9#131 | FT rate | #28839.1 |
| 12.0#340 | Block% | #9510.9 |
| 53.4#153 | Assist% | #16151.6 |
| 57.5#25 | 2P% | #2646.9 |
| 35.7#72 | 3P% | #21934.5 |
| 76.5#41 | FT% | — |
| 53.7#1 | 3PA rate | #17439.7 |
South Florida offense vs Alabama defense
| South Florida O | Stat | Alabama D |
|---|---|---|
| 73.0#12 | Tempo | #574.5 |
| 50.6#211 | eFG% | #7349.2 |
| 15.1#72 | TOV% | #35812.8 |
| 38.1#8 | ORB% | #28832.7 |
| 40.4#55 | FT rate | #10231.9 |
| 13.1#357 | Block% | #6811.4 |
| 58.4#53 | Assist% | #4246.6 |
| 52.0#168 | 2P% | #4548.3 |
| 32.5#256 | 3P% | #17233.9 |
| 74.6#100 | FT% | — |
| 43.8#96 | 3PA rate | #31735.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Alabama
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan24 | L 77–90 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Texas Tech12 | W 90–65 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Hofstra148 | W 90–70 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Ole Miss49 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Auburn27 | W 96–84 |
South Florida
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Louisville15 | L 79–83 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Wichita St.80 | W 70–55 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Charlotte112 | W 86–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | H | Charlotte112 | W 83–60 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | A | Memphis84 | W 96–89 |
