Model line
Alabama −35.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Alabama >99%
Projected tempo
74.4
possessions
Site
Alabama home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Alabama a 35.2-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas St. offense vs Alabama defense
| Arkansas St. O | Stat | Alabama D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.5#15 | Tempo | #574.5 |
| 51.7#161 | eFG% | #7349.2 |
| 19.8#343 | TOV% | #35812.8 |
| 38.2#7 | ORB% | #28832.7 |
| 39.1#79 | FT rate | #10231.9 |
| 10.2#251 | Block% | #6811.4 |
| 55.8#94 | Assist% | #4246.6 |
| 53.6#99 | 2P% | #4548.3 |
| 32.9#235 | 3P% | #17233.9 |
| 73.3#157 | FT% | — |
| 44.9#69 | 3PA rate | #31735.0 |
Alabama offense vs Arkansas St. defense
| Alabama O | Stat | Arkansas St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 74.5#5 | Tempo | #1572.5 |
| 55.4#31 | eFG% | #11550.3 |
| 13.1#9 | TOV% | #29214.9 |
| 32.2#115 | ORB% | #3727.0 |
| 36.9#131 | FT rate | #23537.0 |
| 12.0#340 | Block% | #2967.3 |
| 53.4#153 | Assist% | #15351.4 |
| 57.5#25 | 2P% | #12750.8 |
| 35.7#72 | 3P% | #10932.9 |
| 76.5#41 | FT% | — |
| 53.7#1 | 3PA rate | #20738.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas St.
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Georgia Southern307 | L 77–80 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Louisiana215 | W 81–58 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Southern Miss236 | W 89–84 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 102–94 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | A | Louisiana215 | W 79–62 |
Alabama
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan24 | L 77–90 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Texas Tech12 | W 90–65 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Hofstra148 | W 90–70 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Ole Miss49 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Auburn27 | W 96–84 |
