Model line
Florida −13.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida 92%
Projected tempo
72.2
possessions
Site
Florida home
8%Win probability92%
The model makes Florida a 13.4-point favorite, winning about 92 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Kentucky offense vs Florida defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Florida D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #1672.4 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #1045.9 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #27015.2 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #724.6 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #14433.8 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #3412.6 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #1844.3 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #544.6 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #7132.2 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #33633.8 |
Florida offense vs Kentucky defense
| Florida O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.4#16 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 54.1#65 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 16.3#154 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 43.5#2 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 38.6#86 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 7.2#18 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 54.5#125 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 58.4#17 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 31.2#314 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 71.1#233 | FT% | — |
| 36.9#232 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
Florida
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa41 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | W 114–55 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Vanderbilt21 | L 74–91 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Kentucky20 | W 71–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Kentucky20 | W 84–77 |
