Model line
Missouri −6.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Missouri 77%
Projected tempo
71.4
possessions
Site
Missouri home
24%Win probability77%
The model makes Missouri a 6.9-point favorite, winning about 77 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas offense vs Missouri defense
| Arkansas O | Stat | Missouri D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.7#13 | Tempo | #18768.3 |
| 56.5#17 | eFG% | #18751.5 |
| 12.2#1 | TOV% | #18616.5 |
| 32.1#120 | ORB% | #24231.7 |
| 35.8#160 | FT rate | #19735.5 |
| 6.4#8 | Block% | #10810.6 |
| 53.4#154 | Assist% | #18152.5 |
| 55.8#44 | 2P% | #5548.7 |
| 38.7#9 | 3P% | #34136.8 |
| 75.0#79 | FT% | — |
| 32.9#316 | 3PA rate | #7243.0 |
Missouri offense vs Arkansas defense
| Missouri O | Stat | Arkansas D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.3#187 | Tempo | #1372.7 |
| 55.0#39 | eFG% | #17751.4 |
| 17.8#260 | TOV% | #24415.6 |
| 34.9#50 | ORB% | #19831.0 |
| 42.1#29 | FT rate | #6630.3 |
| 9.7#210 | Block% | #2313.1 |
| 51.2#211 | Assist% | #10549.8 |
| 56.4#40 | 2P% | #27654.0 |
| 35.0#116 | 3P% | #4731.5 |
| 69.1#296 | FT% | — |
| 36.4#241 | 3PA rate | #21038.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Arizona5 | L 88–109 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | High Point61 | W 94–88 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Hawaii132 | W 97–78 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Vanderbilt21 | W 86–75 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Ole Miss49 | W 93–90 |
Missouri
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Miami FL13 | L 66–80 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Kentucky20 | L 72–78 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Arkansas23 | L 84–88 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Oklahoma22 | L 64–80 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Mississippi St.70 | W 88–64 |
