Model line
Kentucky −6.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Kentucky 76%
Projected tempo
72.1
possessions
Site
Kentucky home
24%Win probability76%
The model makes Kentucky a 6.6-point favorite, winning about 76 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas offense vs Kentucky defense
| Arkansas O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.7#13 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 56.5#17 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 12.2#1 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 32.1#120 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 35.8#160 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 6.4#8 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 53.4#154 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 55.8#44 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 38.7#9 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 75.0#79 | FT% | — |
| 32.9#316 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Kentucky offense vs Arkansas defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Arkansas D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #1372.7 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #17751.4 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #24415.6 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #19831.0 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #6630.3 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #2313.1 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #10549.8 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #27654.0 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #4731.5 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #21038.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Arizona5 | L 88–109 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | High Point61 | W 94–88 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Hawaii132 | W 97–78 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Vanderbilt21 | W 86–75 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Ole Miss49 | W 93–90 |
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
