Model line
Florida −1.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida 56%
Projected tempo
71.8
possessions
Site
LSU home
56%Win probability44%
The model makes Florida a 1.4-point favorite, winning about 56 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Florida offense vs LSU defense
| Florida O | Stat | LSU D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.4#16 | Tempo | #16468.7 |
| 54.1#65 | eFG% | #15050.9 |
| 16.3#154 | TOV% | #34013.9 |
| 43.5#2 | ORB% | #24131.7 |
| 38.6#86 | FT rate | #25637.8 |
| 7.2#18 | Block% | #12310.3 |
| 54.5#125 | Assist% | #3746.3 |
| 58.4#17 | 2P% | #8049.5 |
| 31.2#314 | 3P% | #27335.4 |
| 71.1#233 | FT% | — |
| 36.9#232 | 3PA rate | #23937.9 |
LSU offense vs Florida defense
| LSU O | Stat | Florida D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.7#164 | Tempo | #1672.4 |
| 52.8#110 | eFG% | #1045.9 |
| 15.6#111 | TOV% | #27015.2 |
| 33.1#88 | ORB% | #724.6 |
| 40.9#51 | FT rate | #14433.8 |
| 8.3#74 | Block% | #3412.6 |
| 52.5#180 | Assist% | #1844.3 |
| 54.5#73 | 2P% | #544.6 |
| 33.1#223 | 3P% | #7132.2 |
| 76.4#43 | FT% | — |
| 34.5#286 | 3PA rate | #33633.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Florida
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa41 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | W 114–55 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Vanderbilt21 | L 74–91 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Kentucky20 | W 71–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Kentucky20 | W 84–77 |
LSU
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Kentucky20 | L 82–87 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Texas A&M33 | L 91–94 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Auburn27 | L 74–88 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Oklahoma22 | L 67–83 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Ole Miss49 | W 106–99 |
