Model line
Alabama −9.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Alabama 84%
Projected tempo
73.9
possessions
Site
Alabama home
16%Win probability84%
The model makes Alabama a 9.5-point favorite, winning about 84 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas offense vs Alabama defense
| Arkansas O | Stat | Alabama D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.7#13 | Tempo | #574.5 |
| 56.5#17 | eFG% | #7349.2 |
| 12.2#1 | TOV% | #35812.8 |
| 32.1#120 | ORB% | #28832.7 |
| 35.8#160 | FT rate | #10231.9 |
| 6.4#8 | Block% | #6811.4 |
| 53.4#154 | Assist% | #4246.6 |
| 55.8#44 | 2P% | #4548.3 |
| 38.7#9 | 3P% | #17233.9 |
| 75.0#79 | FT% | — |
| 32.9#316 | 3PA rate | #31735.0 |
Alabama offense vs Arkansas defense
| Alabama O | Stat | Arkansas D |
|---|---|---|
| 74.5#5 | Tempo | #1372.7 |
| 55.4#31 | eFG% | #17751.4 |
| 13.1#9 | TOV% | #24415.6 |
| 32.2#115 | ORB% | #19831.0 |
| 36.9#131 | FT rate | #6630.3 |
| 12.0#340 | Block% | #2313.1 |
| 53.4#153 | Assist% | #10549.8 |
| 57.5#25 | 2P% | #27654.0 |
| 35.7#72 | 3P% | #4731.5 |
| 76.5#41 | FT% | — |
| 53.7#1 | 3PA rate | #21038.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Arizona5 | L 88–109 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | High Point61 | W 94–88 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Hawaii132 | W 97–78 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Vanderbilt21 | W 86–75 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Ole Miss49 | W 93–90 |
Alabama
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan24 | L 77–90 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Texas Tech12 | W 90–65 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Hofstra148 | W 90–70 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Ole Miss49 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Auburn27 | W 96–84 |
