Model line
Kentucky −4.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Kentucky 69%
Projected tempo
73.3
possessions
Site
Kentucky home
31%Win probability69%
The model makes Kentucky a 4.8-point favorite, winning about 69 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Alabama offense vs Kentucky defense
| Alabama O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 74.5#5 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 55.4#31 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 13.1#9 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 32.2#115 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 36.9#131 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 12.0#340 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 53.4#153 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 57.5#25 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 35.7#72 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 76.5#41 | FT% | — |
| 53.7#1 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Kentucky offense vs Alabama defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Alabama D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #574.5 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #7349.2 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #35812.8 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #28832.7 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #10231.9 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #6811.4 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #4246.6 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #4548.3 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #17233.9 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #31735.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Alabama
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan24 | L 77–90 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Texas Tech12 | W 90–65 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Hofstra148 | W 90–70 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Ole Miss49 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Auburn27 | W 96–84 |
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
