Model line
Texas −9.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Texas 84%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
Texas home
16%Win probability84%
The model makes Texas a 9.3-point favorite, winning about 84 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Kentucky offense vs Texas defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Texas D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #18068.4 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #14150.7 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #35213.2 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #2826.6 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #29939.8 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #2787.7 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #3646.2 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #9449.8 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #25235.1 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #34633.1 |
Texas offense vs Kentucky defense
| Texas O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.4#180 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 53.9#71 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 15.1#73 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 35.4#38 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 44.7#7 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 10.2#256 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 43.9#346 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 54.8#63 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 34.8#133 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 74.7#98 | FT% | — |
| 35.5#262 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
Texas
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Purdue29 | L 77–79 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Gonzaga17 | W 74–68 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | BYU28 | W 79–71 |
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | NC State54 | W 68–66 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Ole Miss49 | L 66–76 |
