Model line
Kentucky −11.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Kentucky 89%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
Kentucky home
11%Win probability89%
The model makes Kentucky a 11.6-point favorite, winning about 89 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
LSU offense vs Kentucky defense
| LSU O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.7#164 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 52.8#110 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 15.6#111 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 33.1#88 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 40.9#51 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 8.3#74 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 52.5#180 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 54.5#73 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 33.1#223 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 76.4#43 | FT% | — |
| 34.5#286 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Kentucky offense vs LSU defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | LSU D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #16468.7 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #15050.9 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #34013.9 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #24131.7 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #25637.8 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #12310.3 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #3746.3 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #8049.5 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #27335.4 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #23937.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
LSU
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Kentucky20 | L 82–87 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Texas A&M33 | L 91–94 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Auburn27 | L 74–88 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Oklahoma22 | L 67–83 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Ole Miss49 | W 106–99 |
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
