Model line
Florida −3.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida 65%
Projected tempo
72.3
possessions
Site
Mississippi St. home
65%Win probability35%
The model makes Florida a 3.7-point favorite, winning about 65 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Florida offense vs Mississippi St. defense
| Florida O | Stat | Mississippi St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.4#16 | Tempo | #3271.5 |
| 54.1#65 | eFG% | #15250.9 |
| 16.3#154 | TOV% | #36112.8 |
| 43.5#2 | ORB% | #18930.7 |
| 38.6#86 | FT rate | #11232.3 |
| 7.2#18 | Block% | #8511.1 |
| 54.5#125 | Assist% | #17252.1 |
| 58.4#17 | 2P% | #14051.0 |
| 31.2#314 | 3P% | #17533.9 |
| 71.1#233 | FT% | — |
| 36.9#232 | 3PA rate | #18239.5 |
Mississippi St. offense vs Florida defense
| Mississippi St. O | Stat | Florida D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.5#32 | Tempo | #1672.4 |
| 51.5#172 | eFG% | #1045.9 |
| 16.1#146 | TOV% | #27015.2 |
| 29.8#209 | ORB% | #724.6 |
| 30.7#288 | FT rate | #14433.8 |
| 11.0#303 | Block% | #3412.6 |
| 45.1#333 | Assist% | #1844.3 |
| 53.4#110 | 2P% | #544.6 |
| 32.4#261 | 3P% | #7132.2 |
| 66.0#353 | FT% | — |
| 40.1#168 | 3PA rate | #33633.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Florida
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa41 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | W 114–55 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Vanderbilt21 | L 74–91 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Kentucky20 | W 71–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Kentucky20 | W 84–77 |
Mississippi St.
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Auburn27 | L 61–79 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Georgia40 | L 96–102 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Florida2 | L 74–108 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Missouri34 | L 64–88 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Alabama16 | L 75–100 |
