Model line
Missouri −6.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Missouri 76%
Projected tempo
70.8
possessions
Site
Missouri home
24%Win probability76%
The model makes Missouri a 6.8-point favorite, winning about 76 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Kentucky offense vs Missouri defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Missouri D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #18768.3 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #18751.5 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #18616.5 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #24231.7 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #19735.5 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #10810.6 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #18152.5 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #5548.7 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #34136.8 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #7243.0 |
Missouri offense vs Kentucky defense
| Missouri O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.3#187 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 55.0#39 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 17.8#260 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 34.9#50 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 42.1#29 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 9.7#210 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 51.2#211 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 56.4#40 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 35.0#116 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 69.1#296 | FT% | — |
| 36.4#241 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
Missouri
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Miami FL13 | L 66–80 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Kentucky20 | L 72–78 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Arkansas23 | L 84–88 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Oklahoma22 | L 64–80 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Mississippi St.70 | W 88–64 |
