Model line
Alabama −0.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Alabama 53%
Projected tempo
73.4
possessions
Site
Mississippi St. home
53%Win probability47%
The model makes Alabama a 0.7-point favorite, winning about 53 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Alabama offense vs Mississippi St. defense
| Alabama O | Stat | Mississippi St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 74.5#5 | Tempo | #3271.5 |
| 55.4#31 | eFG% | #15250.9 |
| 13.1#9 | TOV% | #36112.8 |
| 32.2#115 | ORB% | #18930.7 |
| 36.9#131 | FT rate | #11232.3 |
| 12.0#340 | Block% | #8511.1 |
| 53.4#153 | Assist% | #17252.1 |
| 57.5#25 | 2P% | #14051.0 |
| 35.7#72 | 3P% | #17533.9 |
| 76.5#41 | FT% | — |
| 53.7#1 | 3PA rate | #18239.5 |
Mississippi St. offense vs Alabama defense
| Mississippi St. O | Stat | Alabama D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.5#32 | Tempo | #574.5 |
| 51.5#172 | eFG% | #7349.2 |
| 16.1#146 | TOV% | #35812.8 |
| 29.8#209 | ORB% | #28832.7 |
| 30.7#288 | FT rate | #10231.9 |
| 11.0#303 | Block% | #6811.4 |
| 45.1#333 | Assist% | #4246.6 |
| 53.4#110 | 2P% | #4548.3 |
| 32.4#261 | 3P% | #17233.9 |
| 66.0#353 | FT% | — |
| 40.1#168 | 3PA rate | #31735.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Alabama
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan24 | L 77–90 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Texas Tech12 | W 90–65 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Hofstra148 | W 90–70 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Ole Miss49 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Auburn27 | W 96–84 |
Mississippi St.
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Auburn27 | L 61–79 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Georgia40 | L 96–102 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Florida2 | L 74–108 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Missouri34 | L 64–88 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Alabama16 | L 75–100 |
