Model line
USC −23.8
2025–26 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
USC 99%
Projected tempo
73.5
possessions
Site
USC home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes USC a 23.8-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Cal Poly offense vs USC defense
| Cal Poly O | Stat | USC D |
|---|---|---|
| 76.1#1 | Tempo | #5471.0 |
| 51.5#171 | eFG% | #8849.7 |
| 19.9#346 | TOV% | #20316.3 |
| 30.0#197 | ORB% | #27032.2 |
| 34.9#184 | FT rate | #13833.4 |
| 11.4#324 | Block% | #1214.9 |
| 49.6#249 | Assist% | #22854.1 |
| 53.7#92 | 2P% | #19852.0 |
| 33.0#228 | 3P% | #3430.9 |
| 78.5#12 | FT% | — |
| 52.6#5 | 3PA rate | #14840.4 |
USC offense vs Cal Poly defense
| USC O | Stat | Cal Poly D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#54 | Tempo | #176.1 |
| 50.4#224 | eFG% | #29253.8 |
| 17.4#232 | TOV% | #20716.2 |
| 32.4#111 | ORB% | #13829.6 |
| 44.2#9 | FT rate | #15434.1 |
| 8.3#85 | Block% | #3505.7 |
| 56.5#81 | Assist% | #17952.5 |
| 51.8#179 | 2P% | #30955.0 |
| 31.7#299 | 3P% | #22834.7 |
| 72.6#183 | FT% | — |
| 34.1#292 | 3PA rate | #13340.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Cal Poly
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | UC San Diego102 | L 69–72 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Cal St. Bakersfield286 | W 108–76 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | A | UC Irvine109 | L 85–107 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | UC San Diego102 | L 64–80 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | Long Beach St.264 | W 102–92 |
USC
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Washington78 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | UCLA18 | L 68–89 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Washington78 | L 72–91 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska19 | L 67–82 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | UCLA18 | L 62–81 |
