Model line
Toledo −11.6
2025–26 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Toledo 89%
Projected tempo
69.9
possessions
Site
Toledo home
11%Win probability89%
The model makes Toledo a 11.6-point favorite, winning about 89 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
South Alabama offense vs Toledo defense
| South Alabama O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.7#310 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 52.6#121 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 13.0#8 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 25.0#341 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 38.5#90 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 11.3#323 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 45.9#320 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 53.2#123 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 34.5#151 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 65.5#357 | FT% | — |
| 36.5#239 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Toledo offense vs South Alabama defense
| Toledo O | Stat | South Alabama D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #31065.7 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #10650.1 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #9318.1 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #22131.4 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #925.4 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #12510.3 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #36471.1 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #13250.8 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #12933.1 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #164.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
South Alabama
| Tue, Mar 17 | A | Auburn27 | L 67–78 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Georgia Southern307 | L 85–94 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Southern Miss236 | L 55–68 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 89–54 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Troy152 | W 65–54 |
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
